Elaine Loughlin: Dáil arithmetic is a factor in next European elections
Fianna Fáil's Barry Cowen is rumoured to be interested in Europe. Picture: Gareth Chaney/Collins
The starting gun was fired this week on the European elections, but it also has set a timer on when the general election will be called.
There is a lengthy list of sitting TDs, including Barry Cowen, Michael Creed, Colm Burke, Peadar Tóibín, and Josepha Madigan, who are all strongly rumoured as being interested in Europe.
Other names that are being pumped out by the Leinster House gossip machine are Labour’s Alan Kelly and the Social Democrats’ Róisín Shortall.
Even before the Electoral Commission had announced an extra seat for a newly configurated Midlands-North-West constituency, many of these high-profile names were being floated.
If successful in next June’s elections, they would have an impact on the Dáil arithmetic.
Added to the mix is the departure of sitting Fine Gael MEPs Deirdre Clune and Frances Fitzgerald.
The rise of Sinn Féin, a party that currently only has one MEP in Chris McManus, also has to be factored into where the seats will eventually end up.
The departure of any TD from the Dáil sets off a six-month countdown to a replacement. By-elections can be dirty affairs, from which Government parties rarely come out well.
Sandwiching what could be multiple by-elections, in between a bruising local campaign and a challenging general election, would be ludicrous.
Instead, Leo Varadkar would have to chose the nuclear option of skipping straight ahead to a full general election.
It’s another reason why speculation around an election in the autumn of next year now seems the most likely outcome.
The most common opinion now is that the European elections will be held before any Dáil poll.
At least one of the five seats in Ireland South is guaranteed to be occupied by a fresh face, after Fine Gael blueblood Deirdre Clune announced last week she would not be running again.
While poll-topper Seán Kelly is expected to retain his seat for Fine Gael, Mr Varadkar’s party will have to find a serious contender to put alongside him.
Fortunately for him, there seems to be plenty of people who are showing interest. Unfortunately for him, they all seem to be men.
While he has kept quiet, at least publicly, many sources say former agriculture minister Michael Creed would be the preferred option and would be the one to get through a party convention.
Sitting TD Colm Burke could be interested in a return to Brussels, while other names that have been touted are the party’s Cork-based senators Jerry Buttimer and Tim Lombard.
It is expected the party will stand three people in this constituency and a Fine Gael wildcard could come in the form of Wexford TD Paul Kehoe, who was very unlucky in the general election boundary redraw. But the party may feel it must have a ticket with a gender balance.
Fianna Fáil will be confident in retaining Billy Kelleher, who has remained a prominent fixture in the Irish media since making the move to Brussels in 2019.
But again, the party will be looking for a female running mate for the former Cork North Central TD, where no obvious options exist.
Carlow Kilkenny TD Jennifer Murnane O’Conner has ruled herself out. However, two strong councillors — Deirdre Cullen in Kilkenny and Tipperary-based Siobhán Ambrose — have been touted as possibilities.
Sinn Féin is likely to run at least two candidates after missing out in the final seat, which Grace O’Sullivan of the Green Party managed to steal just ahead of Liadh Ní Riada, last time around.
Senator Paul Gavan is being widely tipped to run, however, it is unclear who else Mary Lou’s party will put on the ticket.
What the Labour Party and the Social Democrats do remains to be seen, while MEP Mick Wallace is expected to go again.
The addition of Laois and Offaly has all but rubber-stamped Barry Cowen’s appearance on the Fianna Fáil ticket.
Mayo senator Lisa Chambers has also expressed strong interest, with a senior party source telling the last September that the pair would be the “dream ticket” for the party.
However, it is understood Donegal senator Niall Blaney is also interested.
Just two of the four MEPs elected in the 2019 elections currently remain, after Matt Carthy took up a seat in the Dáil and Mairead McGuinness accepted a promotion when she was appointed an EU Commissioner.
Her replacement, Colm Markey, is eager to stay on, as is his fellow Fine Gael MEP Maria Walsh.
Sinn Féin will run someone alongside Chris McManus.
Green Party senator Pauline O’Reilly had announced her intention to stand, even before the new boundaries were announced.
Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín is also toying with the idea.
While Fianna Fáil has its dream team in Midlands-North-West, the last week reported that, in Dublin, Fine Gael is eyeing up its own “dream team” of former TDs Noel Rock and Kate O’Connell.
However, other party members — perhaps seeing a chance to escape what is likely to be a bruising general election campaign — have been strongly briefing, or letting others brief on their behalf.
This includes junior education minister Josepha Madigan, former social protection minister Regina Doherty, Dublin South-West TD Colm Brophy, as well as senators Barry Ward and Emer Currie.
But a big focus in Dublin will be on how many seats Sinn Féin can gain this time, after Lynn Boylan unexpectedly lost out in 2019.
Now in the Seanad, Boylan has also been mentioned for a seat in the Dáil.
Sinn Féin is holding its selection convention in early December, with Boylan expected to easily get through.
Fellow Sinn Féin senator Fintan Warfield has made it known he is interested, and will likely battle it out with well-known councillor Daithí Doolan for the other place on the ticket.
Fianna Fáil is unlikely to put up a second candidate alongside Barry Andrews.
Clare Daly is expected to run again, as is Green Party MEP Ciarán Cuffe.
Recently appointed as Labour’s Dublin spokeswoman, Annie Hoey will also be on the ballot paper.
Meanwhile, the Social Democrats are keeping their cards close to their chest, but it is understood that Gary Gannon has ruled himself out of any race to Europe.
