Elaine Loughlin: Sweeping change in the next Dáil as political dynasties end

Based on the current numbers, almost one in six seats in the next Dáil will be filled by people who are currently not TDs. But the eventual figure will exceed this greatly.

While an election next autumn is still the most likely scenario, TDs could have another 16 months before they go to the polls if the Government lasts its full term.

Despite this, 12 TDs have already publicly announced that they will not be contesting that election with speculation swirling around at least 10 others across multiple parties and none.

The reconfiguration of constituencies also means there will be 14 additional seats in the 34th Dáil. This puts the current confirmed number of open slots at 26.

However, the number is likely to be far higher as this does not take into account others who may also stand aside in the coming months, nor does it allow for those who will run but lose their seats.

Added to the mix will be the 40% gender quota requirement on parties, which should bring in more female representation.

While a certain level of churn is healthy in any democracy, there is a balance between fresh faces with new ideas and new perspectives and retaining knowledge and experience of the political system and legislative process.

Labour’s Seán Sherlock, who is among the exiting group, said the loss of “corporate memory” can leave a void of mentorship.

Nobody gives you a manual for the job, so it is important to have mentors and it is important to learn about parliamentary procedures.

“When I came into politics in 2007, I certainly would have attached myself to great mentors, like Willie Penrose and Jack Wall because they represented very similar constituencies to mine.”

The Cork East TD believes in a social media world with the art of legislating certainly diminishing.

“I’ve noticed a trend where not every TD puts down amendments or speaks to legislation beyond a second-stage speech.

“That is certainly a trend that I’ve seen in over 16 years, and that’s likely to diminish further.”

In leaving the national political stage Mr Sherlock and Mr MacSharry are also getting out of the family business, although Sherlock’s cousin Marie is a member of the current Seanad.

Others who are getting out of the family trade include Richard Bruton, Charlie Flanagan, Michael Creed, and Denis Naughten — who all followed their relatives into a career in Leinster House.

However, author of Dynasties: Irish Political Families, Johnny Fallon does not believe we are seeing the complete demise of family politics.

He suggests while some of the traditional dynasties of the two civil war parties may have vanished, the years ahead will see new ones emerge.

As parties like Sinn Féin, and — to a lesser extent the Social Democrats and Green Party — grow, family names could become cemented into the political landscape.

For others, it may be a matter of time before familiar surnames re-enter the Dáil, when children of the current crop of outgoing TDs become old enough to run. But Mr Fallon also warns: 

When a party is going to go on a downward trend it becomes very difficult to get people to run and that includes dynasties.

This has already been seen with the drop-off in Fine Gael.

It is expected that the number of resignations will be fewer on the Fianna Fáil side and given Sinn Féin is now eyeing up a historic first term in Government, it is unlikely that many of the current crop of TDs will bow out. But elections always bring surprises.

Having stood aside as co-leaders of the Social Democrats, will Róisín Shortall and Catherine Murphy continue on for another term?

There are also question marks around former Labour leader Alan Kelly.

Every election cycle has a natural attrition rate. After serving long careers in opposition or Government there are always those who decide to retire ahead of a poll.

Having “achieved everything that I’m going to achieve in politics”, Labour’s Brendan Howlin confirmed earlier this month that he will not be seeking reelection after more than three decades as a TD. Others in the “long-serving” category include People Before Profit TD Bríd Smith as well as Fine Gael’s David Stanton.

A number of other names have been floating around, including Fine Gael’s Bernard Durkin and Michael Ring who could also decide to end their political careers.

It is understood that Louth TD Fergus O’Dowd is furious that he has also been included in this speculation, dismissing it as “ageism” to colleagues.

More interesting is the other group, who on paper, should have a lot more to give to politics but who are now deciding to forge careers and lives outside of politics.

Announcing his decision to join the growing exodus, Mr MacSharry, who resigned the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party whip last year, said he now feels it is the “correct time to open a new chapter in my life and pursue alternative opportunities”.

He follows others including Brendan Griffin and John Paul Phelan who cited the importance of spending time with their young families among the reasons for leaving at the end of this Dáil term.

These are exactly the middle-ranking mentors that parties, especially those in Government, need to train up first-time TDs.

Despite having experience in drafting legislation when she worked in Australia, Social Democrats TD Jennifer Whitmore remembers the steep learning curve when she was elected for the first time in 2020.

When you do go in it is a very new working environment, with lots of very defined rules, and it takes time to learn those rules and come to terms with them.

Having the support and guidance of two experienced party leaders was crucial, she says.

Modern politics is undoubtedly becoming more precarious for both politicians and political parties, and the level of rotation has been significant since Fianna Fáil saw its support decimated in 2011.

That turnover has continued, with 48 new TDs taking up seats after the last election.

Fianna Fáil’s Billy Kelleher, who was one of the few in his party who survived the 2011 general election, says having a cohort within a party with experience can help ease the burden that tough decisions can have on newer politicians.

“If you’re a new first-time TD, very often you’re elected maybe with a lot of enthusiasm, you have made strong commitments to the electorate and things like that, and then all of a sudden, you’re in a position where you have to make decisions that may not sit comfortably with you initially. That certainly is an area where, you know, I think a bit of experience around front bench or in the parliamentary party,” he says.

The next general election may see the greatest level of change yet.

But Ms Whitmore sees this only as a positive: “I think it’ll be great to have a lot of fresh eyes and fresh energy, perhaps people who are going to come with different experiences and passions.”

Getting the balance right will define the next Dáil, but ultimately that will be decided by the electorate.