Within the association, Pádraig Dalton wears many hats. He played football for Annacurra, Kilmacud Crokes and Wicklow. He is an analyst for Cork hurling club Midleton. Dalton is also the Director General of the Central Statistics Office.

His work is charting precisely how the country is changing. That change has been enormous.

“The population now is about 5.15 million for the 26 counties,” Dalton said, speaking on the Irish Examiner’s Gaelic football podcast. “For the 32 counties, it has just gone over seven million, which is quite interesting. It is the first time we have gone over five million since 1851. It is a real seminal moment in a sense for Ireland.” 

This development is a societal shift. In 1961, 54% of the population lived in rural areas. That figure is now at 36%.

“When you look at population growth between 2016 and 2022, the population grew by eight percent. If you draw a line from north to south down the middle, there is a real east-west thing happening. There is also an urban-rural thing happening. The fastest-growing counties were Fingal, Kildare, Meath. All the fastest-growing counties were on the east. The slowest growing counties were Donegal, Mayo, Roscommon.” The GAA has known it must contend with this for a long time. Over 50 years ago, the McNamee Report highlighted the organisation’s urbanisation issue.

“The GAA is concerned with all the people of Ireland, urban and rural,” it read. “The problem is that the association is weakest where the population is increasing; it is strongest where the population is declining. That problem has always been there but the extent of the adverse trends in recent years has now brought a full realisation of its seriousness for the association.”

What about now? Well, it’s complicated. Of course, it is. This is a nuanced and wide-ranging issue. Since early 2022, the GAA Data Hub has been advancing what was the Geographic Information System, collating all relevant data for GAA clubs from the CSO, the Department of Education and equivalent bodies. Clubs and counties can understand birth-rates, population and age group participation. This information is invaluable.

So how have numbers influenced success? “There are different moving parts to why teams are succeeding and struggling. The numbers do make a difference, but it is not numbers alone. If it was, Dublin should have won hurling and football All-Irelands for the last 30, 40 years because they have the largest population. When you combine population with really good structures and significant funding, you begin to see the benefits.

“I was just looking at the big towns that are over ten thousand and which towns are growing the fastest. A lot of them are in the broader Dublin area, one of them is Naas. It is growing significantly.

“Naas just won a three-in-a-row in football, this year they did a double in hurling and football, really strong at schools. There are other big towns where clearly the population is growing but it hasn’t been an advantage for different reasons. The one that struck me is Tralee, it had three senior clubs. Last year Stacks were relegated. This year O’Rahillys were and they played Na Gaeil in the playoff. That is a big town, but the difference is Naas has one club whereas Tralee has several.” 

Generally, rural clubs are struggling to field due to numbers. Urban clubs are struggling to find space for their numbers. There are three major issues for clubs and counties that impact volunteers and facilities. The first is a large increase in participation, particularly underage. Then there is migration and demographics, both eastwards and the shift from rural to urban. Integration is another significant factor.

The data alone suggests some counties will have to eventually split and others will amalgamate. Dalton is keen to stress the full context.

“It will be very hard for the GAA to move away from the 32-county structure. There is so much vested and tradition in playing for your county,” he said.

“Then again, you look at the likes of Kerry. In terms of population growth, Kerry are not growing as quickly as a lot of other counties. Similar rates to Mayo. If you look at the oldest counties by average age, Mayo is the oldest county and Kerry is the second oldest. There is a population thing, but it is not just about population.

“Numbers make a difference if you go below a certain threshold. Once you are above a threshold it is not just about numbers. It is tradition, culture, coaching, club structures, a whole mix of things.” 

What does it all mean for the future? Can the structure of the GAA as is can survive? 32 counties fielding hurling and football teams, a rural network of clubs playing in and around county towns.

“I don’t know the answer to that. I think it can survive but at what cost? There might be a lot of young players who won’t get games. There will be county teams training for months who don’t have a chance in hell of making it beyond the initial stages of the championship. Over time we will have to adapt.”