Talking Horses: Unexpected Party primed for big run in Paddy Power Gold Cup

Elsewhere on Saturday’s Cheltenham card, Good Risk At All should be tough to beat in the From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Novices' Chase.
Talking Horses: Unexpected Party primed for big run in Paddy Power Gold Cup

ROCK ON: Jonbon en route to victory at Aintree last season. His Sunday clash with Edwardstone will provide an early-season pointer for the Champion Chase next March. Picture: Healy Racing

The jumps season goes up a notch this weekend and Unexpected Party is fancied to run a big race in Saturday’s Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. The presence of The Real Whacker and Stage Star, Festival winners last March, at the head of the weights makes this a classy renewal and both warrant maximum respect.

The Real Whacker is a spectacular jumper and his short head victory over the otherwise blemish-free Gerri Colombe in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase is obviously top-class form. However, the expectation is that he’ll be contesting the Cheltenham Gold Cup next March so two and a half miles today could be too sharp for him on his seasonal reappearance.

There are no trip concerns for Stage Star but holes could be picked in his Turners Novices’ Chase success at the Festival given he fluffed his lines when sent off favourite at Aintree on his final start of last season.

A case could be made for Turners’ runner-up Notlongtillmay or Il Ridoto but there’s plenty to like about Unexpected Party.

Off a lovely racing weight of 10-12, Dan Skelton’s grey has placed form over hurdles and fences so ticks the all-important course box.

However, the biggest thing in his favour is the fact he already has a run under his belt this season. Recent history suggests that’s important as only one of the last 10 Paddy Power Gold Cup winners did so on their seasonal reappearance. That bodes ominously for The Real Whacke, Stage Star, and Il Ridoto.

Unexpected Party’s return came at Chepstow last month where he got the better of Knappers Hill, the front two pulling miles clear of their two rivals. That looked a decent effort at the time and looks even better now after Knappers Hill cruised to a Grade Two victory at Wincanton last weekend.

The sense is that there’s a good handicap in Unexpected Party this season and this might just be his day. Odds of 7-1 look perfectly fair.

Elsewhere on Saturday’s Cheltenham card, Good Risk At All should be tough to beat in the From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Novices' Chase.

A useful hurdler, the Sam Thomas-trained seven-year-old made a perfect start to life over fences with a dominant victory at Carlisle last month and is fancied to build on that smooth success here.

The Paddy Power Games Handicap Hurdle looks a tricky contest but the consistent Judicial Law, second over course and distance last month, should again go close for Jonjo O’Neill.

The Jackdaws Castle handler also has strong claims in the Paddy Power Intermediate Handicap Hurdle but his Springwell Bay might find a race-fit Resplendent Grey too hot to handle. Olly Murphy’s charge ran a good race to finish second to Captain Teague in a Chepstow Grade Two last month and will be hard to beat if he repeats that display.

With a view to the Festival next March, the most significant race of the weekend is the Shloer Chase, a Grade Two contest that pits Jonbon against Edwardstone on Sunday.

Edwardstone ran deplorably when well-fancied for last season’s Champion Chase but he did put up a career-best effort first time out when running away with last season’s Tingle Creek. As a consequence, he’s a dangerous horse to dismiss.

However, Nicky Henderson’s Jonbon has a far more consistent profile and connections will be disappointed if he fails to add another win to a CV that’s flawless outside of the Festival.

Henderson can also strike in the Jewson Handicap Chase where City Chief should go close while Crebilly gets the tentative vote in the cavani.co.uk Novices' Limited Handicap Chase.

The presence of ante-post plunge horse Onlyamatteroftime, now trained by Willie Mullins, makes the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle a conundrum for punters but recent Ascot victor Knickerbockerglory looks to have a decent each-way chance at odds of around 10-1.

Cheltenham tips 

Saturday 

1.45: Good Risk At All (Nap) 

2.20: Unexpected Party 

2.55: Judicial Law 

3.30: Resplendent Grey (NB) 

Sunday

1.45: Crebilly 

2.20: City Chief 

2.55: Jonbon 

3.30: Knickerbockerglory (Each-way)

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