Mick Clifford: Complacency is threatening our future

Others have been more miss than hit in predicting the future. George Orwell wrote the dystopian novel 1984 in 1947, set in a world in which a totalitarian regime ruled and everybody was under the steely gaze of Big Brother. He wasn’t totally wrong.

 In 1984, a good chunk of the planet was under totalitarian regimes in the Soviet Union and China. If the former had managed to stay afloat through the evolution of online communication, who knows how close to Orwell’s imagination the world might have strayed. Anyway, the main thrust of his novel was to send out a warning of what the future could hold if we weren’t on the ball.

This week the future was on view on RTÉ television in a manner that may well have provided a germ of an idea for Orwell were he still around. On Wednesday evening, the national broadcaster screened Tomorrow Tonight, a docudrama-type effort predicting how the planet will be faring in 2050 under climate change. TV critics were not impressed with the production, but the brief was extremely difficult.

The piece was set on the night before a major UN decision on the latest efforts to tackle climate change, not unlike waiting for the arrival of Flash Gordon at a minute to midnight to save the planet. 

To be fair, it wasn’t dystopian but it did attempt to ram home the inconvenient truths that most governments are still refusing to act on 

And one of the reasons for the inaction is a belief, probably based on fact, that most people who vote are not yet ready to contemplate the transformative change that is required.

One scene captured border guards on a beach — presumably on the south coast — patrolling as small crafts bobbed ashore with climate refugees. This is a sight that is already familiar in places like Greece. In Tomorrow Tonight, the refugees have crossed further oceans, beyond the UK which has built a wall around its coast to repel the desperate. So they seek out this country as their last refuge of survival. What chance of survival will there be of the reputation of Ireland as the bastion of a hundred thousand welcomes in tomorrow’s world? The scenario depicted, certainly in projecting from current trends, was well cast.

There were some positives in the docudrama, not least a predicted complete transition away from fossil fuels. But the overall thrust of the piece was that while some of what had to be done was completed, it was way too little way too late.

One suspects that today’s youth, many of whom will be in their prime in 2050, will ultimately have a jaundiced view of those who went before them. A detailed study in the medical journal The Lancet in 2021 laid out the psychological impact that the future is having on young people aged between 16 and 25.

“Respondents across all countries were worried about climate change,” the journal reported. “59% were very or extremely worried and 84% were at least moderately worried. More than 50% reported each of the following emotions: sad, anxious, angry, powerless, helpless and guilty.” Were such emotions prevalent to the same extent among the older demographic, which holds so much political and material power, there may well be greater societal urgency to address the threat.

Investing in the future

Another attempt to contemplate the future under the weight of climate change took place elsewhere during the week. On Wednesday Social Justice Ireland held its annual policy conference on the theme ‘Just Transition’. It reflected the reality that as change comes dropping there is huge potential for chasms to open up in society.

 A tiny example here is retrofitting homes to improve energy efficiency and move away from fossil fuels. 

The system as it is currently designed ensures that such options are largely only open to those who can afford to make the investment in their future. That option is simply not available to many. So what happens as the drift towards renewable energy picks up pace and some find the future beyond their grasp?

One fleeting dark vista was presented at the conference. Professor John Barry from Queens University looked at how some of the lessons learned in conflict resolution in the North could point a way towards efforts to ensure a just transition. He also noted that the possibility of violence breaking out in a new order in which climate change is wreaking havoc and the gap between the haves and the have-nots widens to a frightening degree. He was certainly not advocating any such action, but he did point out that vigilance is required to ensure that society negotiates the change in a manner that ensures no sections are further alienated.

The great thing about the future is that it is still unwritten. There is no inevitability about the planet turning into a weapon with the potential to divide and destroy 

Some elements of climate change are irreversible but history has long shown that where there is a will to survive and put the shoulder to the wheel, the human species is up to the task. What is beyond doubt though is that the longer that a laissez-faire attitude persists the greater the existential challenge for those who will be tasked with keeping their communities and the wider world safe in the years to come.

The main enemy of a bright future is complacency, fuelled primarily by a short-termism that is unwilling to properly contemplate the big picture. In penning 1984, Orwell was warning us about complacency. His message was that constant vigilance was required to ensure that political power didn’t migrate to those with the least concern for basic humanity. The approach of saying, “sure, it will be grand” and hoping for the best is one that will most likely ensure the worst outcome.

Should the planet collectively get its act together in time, the future can still take care of itself and continue to keep on keepin’ on, just like old Mr Springsteen holding back the tide.