Focus on multinationals as Irish GDP shrinks by 4.7%

The GDP figures capture the outsized effect of the many large corporates based here, which predominantly export their goods and services for world markets, but nonetheless, do not automatically present the most accurate picture of the domestic economy, as experienced by Irish households.

In the budget earlier this month, the Department of Finance had forecast that GDP growth would dramatically slow this year to 2% from 9.4% in 2022, as world demand for exports slowed, and then grow by 4.5% in 2024. It projected the domestic economy would grow by 2% this year and by the same amount in 2024, under a measure that strips out the effects of the multinationals.

Effect of large multinationals 

The shrinkage of GDP has been under close scrutiny this year, as economists weigh whether a sharp fall in output and exports can be attributed to an individual large foreign-owned company, or to a wider number of multinationals based here.

The slowdown in corporate tax receipts paid to the exchequer this year has also been linked to the profits decline of some multinationals who have significant tax bases here.

In its release, the CSO said the decline in GDP was linked to multinationals within the industry and information and communication sectors.

Inflation falls to 3.6%

Meanwhile, Irish inflation cooled to 3.6% in October, compared to 5% in the previous month, according to an EU-wide measure used in separate figures released by the CSO.

The dramatic decline was driven by a fall in energy prices, which fell by an estimated 0.3% in the month and decreased by 4.2% in annual terms.

European wholesale energy prices are set to fall even further, as the price paid for the delivery of gas in November dropped to €49 per megawatt hour, late in the session, representing a 4.5% decrease. The price for gas set to be delivered in January dropped by almost 5.5% as well.

Elsewhere, diplomatic efforts in the Middle-East contributed to a 2% fall in crude oil prices earlier this week.

Food prices remain high

However, the figures showed shoppers are still paying high prices for food.

Food prices are estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the last month and increased by 6.7% in annual terms.

Excluding energy and unprocessed food, the Flash Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is estimated to have risen by 4.6% since October last year.

Consumers also seem to be curtailing their spend on luxury items as cost pressure persist despite falling inflation.

The retail sales index from the CSO showed the volume of sales decreased by 1.2% in September.

Pharmacies and cosmetics shops, shopping centres and clothing and shoe outlets were among the retailers that recorded the biggest monthly declines in sales volume.