Irish Examiner view: Making provisions for future generations
A €100bn 'rainy day' fund for future generations was announced in the budget this week.
The decision in this week’s budget to make provision for future generations with a €100bn fund could hardly have been more timely.
We learned on Thursday, courtesy of the World Health Organization (WHO), that next year the number of people aged over 65 in Europe is expected to exceed those under 15.
In the words of the WHO, this change heralds a raft of “new social, economic and health challenges” associated with an ageing population — and one which is only getting older.
Population trends suggest that by around 2050, the number of people aged 65 and over will increase by up to 25%, eventually outnumbering those under 25.
Ireland still has one of the youngest populations in Europe — the median age in Ireland was 38.8 years in 2022, the second-lowest in the EU after Cyprus (and almost 10 years younger than the median age in Italy).
However, Ireland’s median age has also increased by six years since 2002, a slightly faster rate than the EU average.
By 2050, it is anticipated that in Ireland the ratio of working persons to pensioners will be half of the current figure, a fall which is likely to put increased pressure on funding state services.
With that in mind, Finance Minister Michael McGrath’s plans to mandate the investment of 0.8% of nominal GDP — equivalent to €4.3bn — into the new fund from 2024 to 2035 is prudent, and a step that should help to offset the costs associated of meeting the needs of an ageing population.
Those specific needs will not be confined to one sector. They will have an impact on the cost of housing, transport, and healthcare, obviously enough, but there will be security implications and employment challenges as well.
Anticipating those challenges and pressures, in as far as is possible, is a welcome move.
Climate change effect
Climate change continues to throw up unexpected problems, but its impact on the quality of beer is truly a complication out of left field.
The effect of rising temperature is having an effect on hops, a key ingredient in beer: hop yields are down and the acid content in the crop is also falling.
Falling yields have the potential to affect supply, and therefore increase prices, while the change in acid levels is expected to affect the taste of beer, according to a study published in the journal Nature Communications.
However, a study published in iScience says climate change may have the opposite effect on wine — warm temperatures and higher rainfall, both of which are expected to become more common with climate change, are the key to producing good wines.
This is according to scientists who studied the quality of Bordeaux wines over 50 years, concluding that as “climate continues to change, the quality of Bordeaux wines may continue to improve”. The causal link between personal habits and consumption and the wider issue of climate change seems harder to establish in many minds, however.
Fifa has come under fire lately for allocating the 2030 World Cup to six countries: Spain, Portugal, Morocco, Uruguay, Argentina, and Paraguay, will all host games, and it has been pointed out that this is at odds with the soccer body’s climate commitments.
The 2022 World Cup in Qatar had 32 teams playing 64 matches in eight stadiums in and around Doha, but with games in 2030 being played in Europe, Africa, and South America it is expected that at least some fans will be making several transatlantic flights, thus increasing the tournament’s carbon footprint.
This appears to be at odds with the organisation’s stated aims, which include a commitment to a 50% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving net zero by 2040.
Then again, is it necessary to look seven years ahead to see how this issue can be sidestepped? In the enthusiasm for the Irish rugby team’s progress in the Rugby World Cup, are any concerns being expressed about the carbon footprint of those flying over and back to France for games?
World conflicts
It appears likely that the conflict between Israel and Hamas will escalate further in the coming days, with the former moving troops towards the border and the United Nations warning of the possibility of disaster ahead.
The focus on events in the Middle East has removed attention from the Ukraine-Russia war, but it would be wrong to think there are no links between the two.
For instance, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated his support for Israel and condemned Hamas since hostilities began almost a week ago. Yesterday Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov accused Russia of sending weapons to Hamas, weapons Russian forces captured in battle with Ukraine.
Budanov claimed Russia was trying to discredit Ukraine by making Israel think it was supplying weaponry to Hamas. While Ukraine provided no proof to support this, it pointed to Russia’s ties to Israel’s enemies. Russia has used exploding drones against targets in Ukraine — drones supplied by Iran, a sworn foe of Israel.
The Ukraine leadership will be keenly aware the international concentration on the Middle East may replace the focus on their war — and at a time when support for Ukraine seems to be softening.
