Ian Mallon: The €8m business case for Roy Keane
Roy Keane speaking to the media during his time on Ireland' coaching staff. Pic Credit ©INPHO/Cathal Noonan
IN WHAT has been another damaging period for the FAI’s brand and value the association will today host a press conference to discuss a series of management controversies.
Chief executive Jonathan Hill will field a range of questions on Vera Pauw’s claims of executive interference at the FIFA Women’s World Cup in Australia, with the conversation eventually moving to matters concerning the men’s team.
Hill may offer his ongoing support for Stephen Kenny, indeed the risk-averse CEO will likely point to the manager’s contract, which doesn’t expire until after Euro 2024.
However, what will be missing from proceedings will be a forensic examination of Jonathan Hill’s own performance, which too has failed to live up to expectation.
The Yorkshireman has never got to grips with the commercial challenges of Irish football – despite promising so much during his interview process with an FAI panel in autumn of 2020.
Ultimately his most notable business legacy has been an excruciating failure to land a headline sponsor for the men’s international team, along with a top tier partner for the association.
We may be getting close to seeing why Hill has moved roles five times in just nine years, with a growing expectancy that he will be off to pastures new in the coming months, to take up a role leading the organisational structure for Euro 2028.
But before then, there’s still time to show some dynamism, by laying a succession plan which will leave a lasting commercial, sporting and brand legacy for the FAI — all through the reintroduction of Roy Keane to Irish football.
The latest available financial statements for the FAI (2021) - Jonathan Hill’s first year in the job – show a period where commercial revenues fell, despite coming on the back of 2020, when football was effectively cancelled due to Covid.
While a number of Ireland’s five home games were restricted to fans by the pandemic, matchday revenues increased by almost €7m - but commercially, income dropped by 10%.
- Match Day Income €7m (Up €6.8m)
- Commercial Income €13.7m (Down €1.5m)
- Coaching Course Income €5.4m
Since then, some activity has taken place, through deals with Castore (Kit & Retail) and Circle K (Fuel & Convenience) this year, but nothing by way of a sponsor.
The end of this year marks four years since ‘3’ announced it was leaving – a void which would immediately be filled with Roy Keane as manager, achieving an overall value of as much as €4m in new deals.
A Keane announcement would immediately encourage a flurry of top-tier discussions with the winner paying up to €2m per annum in contracts – up from the current price tag of €1.6m.
A suite of other high-end partners would come in, and there would be significant value added to existing deals – all of which can be renegotiated through the T&Cs of commercial contracts.
A Keane-led product would translate into a more attractive matchday proposition.
While the Aviva Stadium has been at capacity for the France and Holland fixtures, 78% of season tickets were sold as part of discounted bundles, reducing the value by as much as €900k – such short-selling would end with Keane at the helm.
For individual or ‘Duo’ match tickets for games which aren’t expected to sell out, the Roy-factor could move 5,000 extra seats per game, at an average price of €30 per person over an average of five competitive home matches – an increase of €750k.
- Keane-associated Commercial Income: +€4m
- Keane-associated Matchday Income: +€1.65m
Under current contracts the FAI earns almost €2.5m through its broadcast partnerships for qualification games with RTÉ - in deals negotiated through UEFA – add in another €700k for friendly fixtures.
League of Ireland fees come in at around €300k, with a combination of international and domestic, worth €3.5m per year.
Currently the numbers watching the Rep of Ireland are relatively low, averaging around 400k per game since Stephen Kenny took charge, comparing unfavourably with key rugby and GAA fixtures.
Under Stephen Kenny, the competitive loss away to Armenia in June 2022 was seen by an average audience of just 180k viewers, while even the 3-0 win over Scotland – in a primetime Saturday evening broadcast - reached 345k.
An average viewership of 477k watched the recent games against France and Holland, compared to the 577k who watched Ireland’s opening Rugby World Cup game v Romania.
The numbers are not enough for serious commercial players, but with Keane – and the guarantee of pre and post-match interviews – these numbers would rise significantly towards 700k viewers, increasing values conservatively by €1.25m.
Then, if you consider the extra broadcast material that would suddenly become in-demand – live, media and social content – there reveals even greater revenue potential.
Interest in Roy Keane press conferences would be premium – three per international window - coming after the first training session of game week, Matchday-1 (the eve of a game) and the post-match press conference.
For such box office content, the FAI could attract paying media backers to broadcast live and exclusively, also attracting additional communications and tech brands along the way.
For this model, we’ll use an ultra-conservative value of €50k income per press conference in advertising and live broadcast rights x 30 per year (on average, home and away) adding at least €1.5m in media value for the FAI.
Keane-associated match broadcast income: +€1.25m
Roy Keane Press Conference Packages: +€1.5m
The Rep of Ireland manager is contractually obliged to appear at a limited number of sponsor and partner events each year.
With Roy and not Stephen at the top table, these events would become utterly compelling, and would form a renegotiation process with rights partners.
Keane participated at a great number of these sessions during his time as assistant to Martin O’Neill, appearing with some enthusiasm at ‘3’, Aviva Season Ticket and other corporate gigs.
Potential corporate and big tech investors could also get a piece of the action, for a significant fee, and the benefit of attaching its own brand to Roy Keane, in the form of HQ visits and Q&A sessions.
Up to 10 sponsored and corporate appearances per year, along with a Year One two-part roadshow at the Bord Gais Energy Theatre in Dublin and the Cork Opera House, could translate into €2-2.5m of extra revenue per year for the FAI.
Keane-related Corporate Appearance Potential: +€2m
Even with a speculated wealth of approximately €30m to €50m, money has never been a significant driver for the former captain – but that doesn’t mean he will come cheaply.
Through his central role with Sky, along with additional commercial contracts with Sky Bet and Sky Sports, Keane earns around €3m per year.
But if the FAI puts in position the commercial infrastructures outlined above, it will be in a position to offer him a salary of €1.5m with additional commercially linked incentives worth between €500k and €1m.
Cost of hiring Roy Keane: -€2m
This leaves a cool €8.4m in profit for an association which doesn’t even earn that type of money through its last reported commercial activities.
Whoever the FAI appoints will come with risk attached, but none will come with as much value as Roy Keane as manager, and someone who has already enjoyed considerable success with Ireland, as a key part of the management structure.
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A TOTAL of €250k was donated to Make-A-Wish Ireland over the course of last week’s Horizon Irish Open at the K Club.
Horizon and its CEO Tim Walbert donated €100k towards the cause, while pro-am attendees gave €59,000 to the charity.
Padraig Harrington, Shane Lowry and Seamus Power committed a total of €22,000 – and while Power missed the event through injury, the money came through pledges for every every birdie and eagle they carded during the week, which was matched by Power.
Horizon donated €150 for every birdie and €300 for every eagle by every player throughout the tournament resulting in €40,650 in pledges, which its Chairman, CEO, and President matched, which the sponsor rounded up to €100,000.
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Mark Kenneally has been hired as Athletics Ireland’s Performance Endurance Lead.
He will have overall responsibility in driving the development of middle and long-distance elite runners.
Kenneally has represented Ireland in the Marathon at the 2012 London Olympic Games and has competed at seven European Cross Country Championships and four World Cross Country Championships.
He holds a PhD in Physical Activity and Sport and has held roles with Scarlets Rugby Club and, more recently, with Leinster Rugby, as well as Head of Performance with League of Ireland side St. Patrick's Athletics FC.
