The ministerial winners and losers of the boundary commission changes
Media Minister Catherine Martin sees an additional seat added to her Dublin Rathdown constituency, which will likely help her retain her seat.
While the Electoral Commission’s redraw of constituencies was more conservative than initially expected, the changes have had a ripple effect for sitting Cabinet and junior ministers.
While some have seen their positions buoyed by an increase in seats, others will be under pressure due to seat reductions or electoral areas being hived off into different constituencies.
While we are still a way off from the next general election, with a November 2024 date being speculated upon, here’s who has benefitted the most and least on the Government benches:
Green Party Minister Catherine Martin sees an additional seat added to her Dublin Rathdown constituency. The Media Minister, who topped the poll in 2020, has been under pressure in recent weeks due to the RTÉ controversy, but this extra seat will likely help her retain her seat in one of the most affluent constituencies in the country.
The two Fine Gael junior ministers in Dublin Rathdown, Josepha Madigan and Neale Richmond, will also be happy with the extra seat.
Another Green Party Minister who will be thankful for the change is Children's Minister Roderic O’Gorman, with an extra seat added to his Dublin West constituency. Had it remained a four-seater, he would have been under pressure from a second Sinn Féin candidate or People Before Profit’s Ruth Coppinger.
His constituency and Government colleagues, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and junior transport minister Jack Chambers, will also be pleased with the extra seat. However, Mr Varadkar will be under pressure to deliver a second seat for Fine Gael, with Senator Emer Currie the most likely candidate.
Embattled Justice Minister Helen McEntee will also be glad of the extra seat for her constituency of Meath East, as well as the electoral area of Julianstown.
With her former running mate Regina Doherty now set to run in Fingal West, Ms McEntee has a straight shot to retaining her seat and potentially bringing another Fine Gael candidate with her.
Fianna Fáil’s sport minister Thomas Byrne will also be grateful for the additional seat in the Meath East constituency, giving him more breathing room.
An extra seat in Galway East will help Fianna Fáil’s Anne Rabbitte, who took the final seat at the 2020 election. The Disabilities Minister will hope this will cushion her, as Sinn Féin will likely push for the final seat in the next election.
One junior minister who will struggle to take a seat in the new Offaly constituency is Land Use Minister Pippa Hackett. Ms Hackett is currently a senator, having failed to secure a seat in the five-seater Laois-Offaly in 2020.
With Offaly now a three-seater, it will be much more difficult to get over the line, as smaller constituencies disproportionately help bigger parties.
With Dublin Fingal divided into two three-seaters, this will also put the Green Party’s Joe O’Brien under pressure. The junior minister took the second seat in 2020, so he will be hoping he can hang on in the new Dublin Fingal West constituency, but it will be tougher than 2020 due to the party’s lower standing in the polls.
Wexford TD and Law Reform Minister James Browne, while not in any immediate danger, will be concerned by his constituency shrinking from a five- to a four-seater following the creation of a new three-seater Wicklow-Wexford constituency.
Mr Browne took the fourth seat in the 2020 election, just ahead of Fine Gael’s Paul Kehoe, who will also be worried about the seat decrease in the constituency.
Fine Gael’s Jennifer Carroll MacNeill in Dún Laoghaire has lost some of her core vote with the removal of Foxrock, Carrickmines and Stillorgan into Dublin Rathdown.
