Who are the winners and losers of the boundary changes?
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar speaking in the Dail Chamber. Picture: Maxwell Photography/PA Wire
With an additional 14 seats set to be added to the next Dáil, there will be TDs and senators the length and breadth of the country who are delighted with the new boundary changes.
The redraw, while it was less radical than some may have expected, has still thrown up significant changes in numerous constituencies, impacting how the votes may fall at the next general election.
But who is likely to be happiest with these changes?
Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien will likely be thrilled to see the creation of a three-seater constituency in Fingal that wraps around his key base of Malahide.
Dublin Fingal East, which will take up Malahide, Donabate, Swords and Portmarnock, will likely help keep Mr O’Brien in place as a Fianna Fáil TD. While his primary base is in Malahide, he also has strong support in Donabate and Portmarnock.
Fine Gael’s Alan Farrell, who is also based in Malahide, will also be in a strong position to keep his seat due to strong party support in the town. After topping the poll in 2020, Sinn Féin’s Louise O’Reilly may have to decide whether to run in Fingal East or Fingal West.
The Sinn Féin operation in Dublin Mid-West will be very happy with their redraw of the constituency, as the constituency sees an additional seat, pushing it from a four- to a five-seater.
The party’s housing spokesperson and standard bearer in Dublin Mid-West, Eoin Ó Broin, will likely be pressing to get a third candidate over the line for Sinn Féin in the constituency, after Mark Ward retained a second seat in 2020.
A chunk of Tallaght, previously in Dublin South-West, is being transferred into Dublin Mid-West, which will help bolster the Sinn Féin vote in the area.
Two of the three Government leaders will also be happy with the changes to their constituencies, as both Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Tánaiste Micheál Martin will see an additional seat in Dublin West and Cork South-Central.
While there has been significant consternation over the redraw in the south-east of the country, Fianna Fáil’s Malcolm Byrne will likely be delighted with the outcome. The new three-seater, Wicklow-Wexford, has his base of Gorey at the centre and he will hope this will allow him to return to the Dáil.
Fine Gael’s Garret Ahearn, a senator from Tipperary, will also be happy with the split into two constituencies after he missed out on a seat in the 2020 election.
A key takeaway from the changes is that the three big parties overall will be pleased with the changes, particularly due to the increase in three-seaters, where larger parties perform particularly well.
In every boundary redraw, there are losers when TDs have their core voting areas hived off into different constituencies.
This year’s redraw is no different, despite an increase of 14 TDs, there will still be politicians left high and dry. But who is now in trouble after the boundary changes?
One of the TDs most impacted by this year’s constituency changes is Seán Sherlock, a Labour TD for Cork East.
Mr Sherlock has his key voter base in the town of Mallow, which has now been moved into a larger Cork North-Central.
This leaves him with a difficult decision of whether to fight it out in Cork East or migrate to Cork North-Central and attempt to take a seat.
Indicative of the difficulty he now faces, he told the : “I’m still assessing what is a seismic shift in the political landscape. It’s too early to make any detailed comment. I need some time to analyse this.”
While Mr Sherlock is the most impacted, Labour more broadly will face difficulties due to the increased number of three-seater constituencies.
Former leader Alan Kelly previously kept his seat in the five-seater Tipperary, but with a split to north and south, he may face an uphill battle if he seeks to retain a seat for the party.
In Wicklow, both Fianna Fáil’s Stephen Donnelly and the Green Party’s Stephen Matthews will be under pressure. With the former five-seater constituency now falling to four seats, it will be a battle among the five incumbent TDs — all based in north Wicklow — as to who survives.
The loss of rural parts of Wicklow will likely reduce the Fianna Fáil vote, which Mr Donnelly relied on in 2020 to get over the line.
Several People Before Profit TDs may also face pressure, as Sinn Féin will be breathing down their necks in several Dublin constituencies.
Prominent TD Paul Murphy could be squeezed by two Sinn Féin candidates in Dublin South-West, while Gino Kenny will face pressure as the party looks to run three candidates in Dublin Mid-West.
While Sinn Féin will be happy overall, the party’s incumbent TD in Meath-West, Johnny Guirke, has lost a chunk of his vote in Meath West.
More broadly, smaller parties are likely to be unhappy with some of the changes, particularly the increase in three-seater constituencies across the country.
It is accepted larger parties fare better in these smaller constituencies, while smaller parties can struggle to get candidates over the line without high-profile performers.
